Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision∗
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in ...
متن کاملStrengthening confidence in climate change impact science
1Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4, 2National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA, 3Department of Global Change Research, Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, IMEDEA (UIB-CSIC), 07190 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain, 4The UWA Oceans Institute...
متن کاملThe Probability of Rapid Climate Change
Western Europe’s climate is warmer than would be expected because of heat transported by the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Model simulations and paleoclimate data show that it is possible for this circulation to shut down leading to rapid cooling in European climate. We investigate the probability of this occurring using the intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDS...
متن کاملConfidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions.
Over the last 20 years, climate models have been developed to an impressive level of complexity. They are core tools in the study of the interactions of many climatic processes and justifiably provide an additional strand in the argument that anthropogenic climate change is a critical global problem. Over a similar period, there has been growing interest in the interpretation and probabilistic ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Philosophy of Science
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0031-8248,1539-767X
DOI: 10.1086/692145